What we’re hearing on the MLB trade deadline: Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and the pitching market

With limited options available for pitching-needy clubs leading up to the MLB trade deadline, bettors should consider how the performances of Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen may influence odds on potential trades and team successes.

With a week remaining until Major League Baseball’s trade deadline, pitching-needy clubs acknowledge the options are fairly limited. The Ace, which has long been an archetype of the trade deadline, exists more in baseball history, or even mythology. That singular talent, multiple league sources briefed on those conversations told The Athletic, is simply unavailable.

Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen should be in that discussion but are not currently performing at that level, and it is questionable whether they can recapture that form in time to help a team win the 2025 World Series. Even a progressive organization with big ideas on how to fix those pitchers might have trouble implementing significant changes in the middle of a playoff race. That uncertainty is an emerging theme for the July 31 deadline, which is trending toward finding insurance and filling roster holes more than delivering impact. “There’s a lot of names,” one club official observed. “But all the guys are going to have a little bit of warts on them. You just got to figure out what you’re willing to deal with.”

Major-league evaluators expressed concerns with how the Miami Marlins handled the rollout of Alcantara, a Cy Young Award winner who underwent Tommy John surgery after the 2023 season. Even with Wednesday’s dominant performance – Alcantara allowed one unearned run and no walks in seven innings during a 3-2 victory over the San Diego Padres – his ERA is 6.66. While it’s possible something has suddenly clicked for Alcantara, performance isn’t the only issue. After not throwing a single major-league pitch last year, he has already logged 104 innings this season. Any team hoping to play through the end of October has to be wondering: How much does he have left in the tank?

Gallen’s role in helping lead the Arizona Diamondbacks to the 2023 World Series is not a distant memory. That postseason experience is a compelling reason to acquire him – and a cautionary reminder for an Arizona franchise that will not easily concede. The 2023 Diamondbacks team won only 84 games, but that group went on a hot streak at the right time and captured the National League pennant. Gallen is very much a pitcher who operates by feel, but that sense has come and gone too often this season (7-11, 5.58 ERA). While his metrics are largely similar to previous years, a veteran hitter pointed out that even a slight dip in velocity can dilute his pitch mix, which relies on sequencing and sharp contrasts.

Nonetheless, league sources said, Gallen is viewed as a pitcher worth pursuing. “Zac wants the ball,” a league source said. “He finds the chip and puts it on his shoulder and keeps going. He’s the type of guy who’s also very honest with himself about how he’s doing and what’s going on.”

With both Gallen and Alcantara, it will be a question of whether their respective teams would trade them for what they are now, or what they once were at their peaks. The Padres, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, and Toronto Blue Jays are among the clubs that could play in this part of the pitching market. Gallen can become a free agent after this season, making him a rental player, but the Diamondbacks aren’t looking for faraway prospects to sell a long-term rebuild. The Marlins are still stuck in that process, but they could elect to restore Alcantara’s trade value over the final two months of the season and market him this winter. By that point, more clubs might find his contract terms – which include a $21 million club option for 2027 – more attractive.

“Honestly, it feels like the whole industry is not close on anything,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said late Wednesday morning at Wrigley Field. “The deadline, that’s what creates the action.” In this pitching void, expect more trade speculation about Joe Ryan, though league sources expressed doubt that the Minnesota Twins would actually deal an All-Star pitcher who remains under club control through 2027. Mitch Keller is another popular name, but he is also an example of the many available pitchers who are seen as solid rather than spectacular.

To make a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, an organization would have to absorb the rest of Keller’s contract – the balance of his $15 million salary this season, $16.5 million next year, $18 million in 2027, and $20 million in 2028 – and give up top prospects. Keller was an All-Star in 2023, and he’s having another good season on a bad team (4-10, 3.53 ERA). Executives, however, will have to weigh whether the overall cost is really worth it for a pitcher who profiles like a middle-of-the-rotation guy more than a Game 1 playoff starter.

Amid all this uncertainty, Kansas City Royals pitcher Seth Lugo did his job in Wednesday’s 8-4 win over the Cubs, beating a team that already had him on their radar as an intriguing trade candidate. On a 92-degree afternoon, Lugo contained an explosive offense for six innings (two runs) as the Royals earned a much-needed series victory. With a 50-53 record, Kansas City is one of several bubble teams that are still on the buy-or-sell fence but also within striking distance of a playoff spot.

“This is our team, and I’m part of it,” said Lugo, whose contract contains a player option worth $15 million for next season. “I want to be here, through thick and thin. It’s a good clubhouse. It’s a good team. We just got to be more consistent, and keep playing like we can, and we’ll be all right.”

Within Wrigley Field’s visiting clubhouse, Kansas City first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino gestured toward Lugo’s locker, alluding to the sense of urgency that will heighten in the next week across the entire baseball industry. “I’d really like to see him with a Royals jersey on for his next start,” Pasquantino said. “We’re trying to make that happen. That’s up to us.”

— The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal contributed reporting (Top photo of Sandy Alcantara: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

Contenders searching for an ace will likely to have to aim a little lower: 'All the guys are going to have a little bit of warts on them.'

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