MLB trade deadline primer: Everything you need to know heading into Thursday

As the MLB trade deadline approaches, teams are scrambling to re-evaluate their strategies. With significant moves like the Yankees acquiring Ryan McMahon and the Royals picking up Randal Grichuk, bettors should watch for how these trade activities impact team performance, possibly favoring buys on teams making notable upgrades like the Yankees and Mariners.

Baseball fans, buckle up, the trade deadline is less than four days away. If last year is anything to judge by, Wednesday and Thursday are going to be chaotic, with several teams making last-minute decisions on whether to be buyers, sellers or some hybrid combination of the two. So with less than 96 hours to go, let’s sift through the reports and rumors and see whether we can determine what’s real, what’s a maybe and what doesn’t pass the smell test.

First, a quick catch-up. Here are some of the moves that have already happened, some of which will help shape the coming days:

1. New York Yankees pick up infielder(s): Everyone knew the Yankees needed a third baseman, and they went and got one: Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies. Then, just to hedge their bets, they added Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals, who doesn’t play third base but does play shortstop. Interesting.

2. Kansas City Royals acquire Randal Grichuk: The Royals needed outfield depth, and the Arizona Diamondbacks were able to provide it, sending Grichuk in exchange for reliever Andrew Hoffman.

3. New York Mets bolster bullpen: The Baltimore Orioles’ sell-off seems real; they sent reliever Gregory Soto to the Mets, who needed left-handed relief, with southpaws A.J. Minter, Brandon Waddell and Danny Young on the injured list and Brooks Raley only just back from injury. Not to jump the gun on deadline rumors, but the Mets should add more bullpen help.

4. Seattle Mariners get first baseman: As we’ll discuss later, there aren’t that many bats available at this year’s deadline. So the Mariners acted early, scooping Josh Naylor from the D-Backs.

5. Erick Fedde finds a home: Recently designated for assignment in St. Louis, Fedde is headed to the Atlanta Braves. He’ll be a depth player for an Atlanta team that has seen several pitching injuries lately.

6. Seth Lugo remains in Kansas City: Primed to be one of the biggest available arms this deadline and into the winter, the right-hander and the Kansas City Royals agreed to terms on a two-year extension.

OK, on to the rumors ...

These rumors have the juice ...

• Luis Robert is (finally) traded: He could be a free agent, as the Chicago White Sox aren’t likely to exercise their team options. The good news for the White Sox: Robert entered play Monday hitting .351/.442/.541 (.982 OPS) in July. Maybe too little, too late for Chicago to get the huge return it would have dreamed of two years ago. But maybe one hot month will get it something better than if he stayed hitting .185 (.584 OPS), which is where he finished June.

• Texas Rangers add ... but where: Texas is 9-1 over its last 10 games, and look at that: The Rangers are tied for the third and final AL wild-card position. The question is ... where will they add? The previously anemic offense has been clicking in July, and Joc Pederson just came off the IL. Jake Burger will be back soon, too. The bullpen recently lost Chris Martin, but essentially replaced him when Jon Gray returned from the IL. Something tells me injury returns won’t be the extent of the additions. My guess: a closer, a la Ryan Helsley, Jhoan Duran or a reunion with Pete Fairbanks.

• Mariners add bullpen help: Sometimes, you hear rumors through sources and reports. Other times, it comes straight from the horse’s mouth. If Jerry Dipoto says the Mariners are going to be “as aggressive as anyone” in adding back-end bullpen help, then I suspect they’ll be making some calls.

• Chicago Cubs acquire (at least) a starting pitcher: Initially, this section said Seth Lugo seemed like a good fit. But Sunday night, news broke that Lugo and the Royals had agreed on an extension. So now the Cubs will turn their attention to any number of other starters who should move this week. I’m not sure the Nats would trade MacKenzie Gore, but the Cubs would be psyched if that worked out. The short version: The Cubs will add a starter.

No, really.

• A.J. Preller does ... something: He always does. And despite a cold stretch lately, the San Diego Padres still hold the No. 3 NL wild-card position. The trade deadline is prime Preller season, even if it’s hard to guess what he’ll do.

• D-Backs trade Eugenio Suárez (and at least one starting pitcher): The Diamondbacks have the best bat on the market, giving them a chance to reshape their franchise. Throw in starters Merrill Kelly and/or Zac Gallen, and this deadline could be something they look back on for the next half decade or more. It’s time to lean into the bidding war on Suárez, particularly given the number of contenders with third-base needs — hello, Mariners, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds, Cubs ... maybe even the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, given recent injuries? Heck, even the Toronto Blue Jays — who have Ernie Clement ensconced at the hot corner — could play Suárez at DH and move George Springer back to more regular outfield playing time.

Speaking of third base ...

If not this, then something like it ...

• Nolan Arenado headlines Cardinals sell-off: Yeah, yeah. Arenado has a no-trade clause — one that already scuttled an offseason deal to the Astros. When the Cardinals came out of the gate hot, that seemed like a blessing in disguise. But as St. Louis fades down the stretch, it might be time to revisit whether the eight-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glover would accept a trade to a contender. As we’ve noted, there are a lot of potential fits.

If not Arenado, there are still a load of veterans who could move this week.

• Nestor Cortes moved from the Milwaukee Brewers: As Ken Rosenthal reports here, the Brewers already have five starters — Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Jose Quintana and Jacob Misiorowski — having good years. Going to a six-man rotation would tax an already overworked bullpen. If they’re not moving Cortes to the bullpen, they could flip him for some much-needed bench depth. Or, they could swing big and include Cortes (or one of their other starters) in a package for another infielder, given Joey Ortiz’s rough season.

• Mets flip a young infielder for a center fielder: It just makes too much sense. Will Sammon and Tim Britton explain here.

In possibly related news ...

• Minnesota Twins trade Joe Ryan. Or Jhoan Duran. Or Griffin Jax: Listen, the Twins are cooked this year. If they make Ryan available, he could be the best starter on the market. Unless, as Rosenthal suggests here, they decide to make Pablo López available. If they add Duran or Jax to the fire sale, they could transform their roster in one deadline. I just don’t see it ...

• Dustin May dealt from Dodgers: Yes, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow back, with Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell expected to return soon. Yes, they have a glut of relievers on the IL (who could have foreseen that, given their early-season workload?). And yes, May’s performance seems to make him the odd man out. So sure, you could get fancy and trade May for a reliever. But given how fragile their starters have been, doesn’t it make more sense to make May a bulk reliever? (They’re already doing that with Bobby Miller.) I’m not saying it can’t happen — May is a pending free agent, so if the contracts make sense, maybe another contender would give up a year or two of team control on a reliever to bring in May for the rest of the year. But barring that, it’s probably best to keep him around for the next time a starter hits the IL. In the meantime, how about Joe Kelly or other (internal) options for bullpen help? Also, some manner of offensive upgrade seems likely.

• Sandy Alcantara traded anywhere: He’s one of the most-discussed names on the rumor mill this year. And his last start — Wednesday against the Padres — was seven innings with only one (unearned) run. But it’s one start. He entered last night’s action leading the league in earned runs (77). Given what his value would have been had he looked more like 2022 (when he won the NL Cy Young Award), I’m not sure the Miami Marlins should sell right now. He’s under control through at least next year (and the Marlins have a team option for 2027), so unless Tuesday’s start against the Cardinals is enough to convince some team to pay full price for the potential pony up, I can’t see why Miami should sell low.

• Boston Red Sox trade Jarren Duran: I could squint and see it two weeks ago. But after the injury to Marcelo Mayer, which will likely push Ceddanne Rafaela to the infield, Duran will be needed more in center field.

• Los Angeles Angels embrace roles as sellers: I mean, they should. There’s absolutely no reason for them not to. But the Fightin’ Arte Morenos have not shown much inclination to do this in the past, when it made equally as much sense.

What about those Pittsburgh Pirates? Stephen Nesbitt already wrote a very insightful article detailing the various directions the Pirates could go, so I don’t need to get too in-depth here, other than to say: I think they’re one of the more intriguing teams to watch over the next few days. One thing I do feel fairly confident about: Neither Paul Skenes nor Oneil Cruz will be traded, for similar-but-different reasons. For Skenes, I’m sure a package does hypothetically exist that could pry away the 23-year-old face of the franchise, but we’re talking something along the lines of all six of the Detroit Tigers prospects on Keith Law’s Top 100. That would be — if I may be blunt — very dumb. Skenes is a great pitcher, but he is only one pitcher, with only one arm that throws 100 mph, and no backup arm growing out of his back, should that one get injured.

For Cruz, it’s less about what he is, and more about what he isn’t ... yet. Yes, he’s a Statcast monster. But there are still enough holes in his game — both at the plate and in the field — that I don’t think he is a fully known “asset” right now. The Pirates could give up on him, but with three years of team control remaining, it just doesn’t make sense for them to do that now. Get back to me in 2027, though.

If last year is anything to judge by, Wednesday and Thursday are going to be chaotic, so buckle up.

Theathleticuk