MLB 2025 Mock Draft 3.0: Kade Anderson jumps to No. 1; Aiva Arquette stays in the Northwest

The Washington Nationals' leadership change might influence their first pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, leaning towards a college player. This uncertainty in player selection could lead punters to bet on Kade Anderson, Aiva Arquette, or Ethan Holliday, with the expectation that a college pitcher will be chosen over a high school player.

We’re now just five days out from the start of the 2025 MLB Draft, and not only do we still not know who’s going first, that pick is even more uncertain than it was before, thanks to the changes in Washington’s front office.

As always, this is my best guess at how the first round might transpire, based on what I’m hearing from sources in the industry and my own understanding of how certain teams value players. It’s not based on my evaluations or rankings of players; you can find those on my final Big Board for this draft. (You’ll also find more in-depth scouting reports on the players mentioned in the mock draft in the Big Board.) I’ll do one more of these over the weekend, by which point we might know a little bit more, as scouting departments have just begun their pre-draft meetings this week.

As far as I can tell, the Nats are still working with a list of six-to-seven candidates for this pick, although I get the sense it’s more likely to be one of Anderson, Aiva Arquette, or Ethan Holliday than one of the others (Liam Doyle, Jamie Arnold, Eli Willits, maybe Seth Hernandez). Given the ill-timed firing — or scapegoating — of GM Mike Rizzo on Sunday, I think it’s less likely they take Holliday or Hernandez than it was previously.

The change in leadership might just make them more likely to take a college player who’s more likely to yield a quicker return, and fortunately this year there are several such college guys who’d be strong picks here, including Anderson, who didn’t so much help himself with his College World Series performance as underline what he’d already shown.

Everyone expects them to take Liam Doyle or Kade Anderson here, although our own Melissa Lockard has heard they at least have done their due diligence on Seth Hernandez as well. I’d be very surprised if this wasn’t a pitcher. I believe this would be Arquette or Kade Anderson, or maybe Liam Doyle if those two guys happen to go 1-2.

Ike Irish would be a potential under-slot pick here. Rumor is the Rockies would go over slot to get Holliday here. If he’s gone, I think they’d take one of the college pitchers. The top four seem likely to be those four aforementioned names in some order, which might make the Cardinals’ lives a little easier as they can negotiate with a larger group of players, knowing that they’re the high water mark for all of those players.

I think Willits, Jamie Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are near the top of their list, but they’re unlikely to take Hernandez (or any HS pitcher). I’ve heard the Pirates are much more inclined to take a college player here than a high schooler, although I do believe they’re a candidate to take Seth Hernandez or Eli Willits. The Marlins went heavy for high schoolers last year, and I’ve heard them more with prep players than college players this year.

I’ve also heard them on Hernandez’s teammate Billy Carlson and on JoJo Parker. I believe the Jays are taking a shortstop here if one of the good ones is available — Carlson, Eli Willits, Wehiwa Aloy — with a college arm as the backup option. This is more about opportunity than a specific tie, and knowing the Reds have done this multiple times — taking a player who was supposed to go higher but was available at their pick because the board just fell another way. That happened with Matt McLain and Cam Collier.

Arnold came into the spring as a top 5 prospect, but he’s been passed by some other players, and his velocity is slightly off from his breakout sophomore year. The White Sox are the first wild-card team in the mock, as they are looking at names beyond the obvious ones. I’ve heard them specifically linked to Schoolcraft, Steele Hall, Tyler Bremner and JoJo Parker.

I’ve heard the A’s on a bunch of college names, including Bremner, Wehiwa Aloy and Jace LaViolette; I haven’t heard them specifically on Kyson Witherspoon or Gavin Kilen but either would fit in this range and with what the A’s seem to like.

I’ve heard Parker doesn’t get past the Rangers, and if he’s gone, they’re the high mark for Kayson Cunningham. They could also go for Steele Hall or Daniel Pierce. I’ve also heard the Giants heavily on Tyler Bremner — they may be his floor — and on Kyson Witherspoon, JoJo Parker and Marek Houston.

The Rays might be the highest team here who seem completely wide open by category (college vs. high school, hitter vs. pitcher). I’ve heard them heavy on Cooper Flemming, although that’s more likely to be for pick 37. The Red Sox were all college last year, with just one high schooler in their top 10 picks and only two high school picks in their entire draft. Given their de-emphasis on in-person scouting that seems likely to continue.

Kilen scores particularly well by batted-ball data and swing decisions, two things the Red Sox value now. I could also see them on Charles Davalan for the same reason. If they were to go the high school route, Gavin Fien would be a fit.

I haven’t heard them on pitching in the first round, although Kyson Witherspoon and Tyler Bremner might be options if either fell here. I’ve heard Pierce anywhere from picks 12 to 20, with teams beyond that expecting him to be gone. The Twins seem to be more on position players than pitchers; I think Gavin Kilen, Marek Houston and even Steele Hall might be fits here.

This would be more of a value pick for the Cubs, similar to when Matt Shaw fell to them two years ago, versus Cam Smith last year, a player they ranked much higher than where they got him. This rumor has had some smoke for a while now, even before Coastal made its run to the CWS finals.

Everyone has Arizona linked to Slater de Brun, another diminutive high school hitter from the Pacific Northwest, but I don’t know if he goes before the comp round (and they do pick again at 29). They may also be a fit for Kayson Cunningham.

The Orioles are one of the teams that rely the most on their draft model, so the industry assumes they’re on guys with very strong data like Fien (one of the best overall hitters at showcases in 2024), Jace LaViolette (similar to several of their recent first-rounders, with strong data on contact, and a lot of whiff), Xavier Neyens (same as LaViolette, but a high school infielder), or Gavin Kilen (low whiff, still strong hard-contact data). I still haven’t heard them on any pitching. They pick again at 30 and 31, so they could open things up a little, especially after their 2024 draft class of mostly college hitters has gotten off to such a poor start.

I’ve heard the Brewers all over the place, and they could just as easily go for a data guy like Gavin Fien or Gavin Kilen, or another arm like Zach Root or Anthony Eyanson (both of whom grade out very well on their non-fastball pitches, but whose fastballs are too straight).

The Astros seem more inclined to take a college hitter here, although they could be one of the buyers on late-rising pitcher Gage Wood, and I know they’re very high on prep hitter Cooper Flemming, who’d be a reach here but won’t get to their next pick at 95. Wood may not even get here — I don’t think College World Series showings tend to move the needle that much, but if anyone’s CWS performance could it would be Wood’s no-hitter — but I think his floor is either with Atlanta or right behind it. This seems like Hall’s floor.

The Royals are also on Kruz Schoolcraft and possibly Xavier Neyens. They pick again at 28, so they can be very creative, and maybe mix player types as they did last year with Jac Caglianone and David Shields as their first two picks.

Gamble is the kind of high-upside athlete Tigers scouting director Mark Conner has always favored, and the IMG Academy infielder — although I think he moves to center eventually — has such a strong commitment to Vanderbilt that I think he either goes in the first round or goes to school. I think the Tigers would take Hall if he’s here, and they could take a fast-moving college arm here like Riley Quick. They pick again at 34.

AJ Preller has long talked about liking “loud tools,” and Neyens’ power is some of the loudest on the high school side. I think they’d take Hall or Schoolcraft if either got here. I would be surprised if they took a college player, of course.

I don’t think the Phillies have changed approach, as Brian Barber has had some huge successes taking high schoolers in the first round, but rather that they might go for a fast-moving arm to try to bolster their contending roster (or provide some trade value). If they go high school again, it’d be someone like Xavier Neyens, Sean Gamble or maybe Josh Hammond.

Eyanson has the pitch shapes/data that Cleveland especially likes, and he’s one of the youngest college players in the class, which has long factored heavily into the Guardians’ draft model. Just for fun, here’s one pick beyond the first round — this is the one PPI pick this year, which the Royals received for Bobby Witt, Jr.’s top-three MVP finish in 2024 — giving the Royals one of the best high school players still on the board.

Hammond’s a strong athlete who was a real two-way player in high school, offering the kind of upside that Royals scouting director Brian Bridges values. I do have the Royals taking two shortstops with these two picks, but teams still do that if they think one or both of them are likely to end up somewhere else (e.g., moving Hammond primarily to third).

(Photo Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Abigail Dollins / Statesman Journal / USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images, Tyler McFarland / NCAA Photos via Getty Images, Danny Parker / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)

The MLB Draft begins on Sunday. How is the first round shaping up at the moment? Will the Nationals change course at 1-1 with a new GM?

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