Best MLB prop bets today [July 4, 2025]

The Detroit Tigers are poised to take advantage of the struggling Cleveland Guardians as they face off in a key matchup. With Reese Olson's exceptional pitching leading the Tigers, punters might consider betting on the Guardians' first five innings team total to stay under 1.5 runs, given their current offensive struggles.

The Detroit Tigers face off against the Cleveland Guardians in a divisional matchup on Friday night. The Cleveland Guardians must quickly round back into form should they want to salvage their hopes of winning the AL Central division title as they are currently 12.5 games back from Detroit for first.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, their struggles on offense are poised to persist with Reese Olson set to take the mound as the Tigers’ pitcher excels at keeping opposing runners out of scoring position. With fifteen games taking place on Friday, there are plenty of prop bets to wager on, which you can read a detailed breakdown of below.

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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians (7:10pm, EST) Cleveland Guardians First Five Innings Team Total Under 1.5: (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After winning the AL Central division title last year, the Cleveland Guardians have failed to carry over their momentum into this season as they are sizably behind the Detroit Tigers in the division standings. Their offense has played a major role in their struggles as their lineup currently ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage.

With Reese Olson set to take the mound, expect the Guardians’ offense to continue to struggle as the Tigers’ pitcher has been dominant since the start of the regular season. As of writing, Olson is averaging an ERA of 2.96, a WHIP of 1.171, a FIP of 2.95, and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched. Should a sportsbook open its Outs prop at 18.5, then look to play the under on that market as well.

Slade Cecconi Under 15.5 Outs: (-135) at FanDuel Sportsbook

On the other side of the field, Slade Cecconi draws a much tougher assignment as he is set to face off against a Tigers offense that ranks top-8 in the same previously mentioned metrics. Especially with his back end failing to provide him the coverage he needs to help mask his struggles on the mound, as the Guardians’ defense ranks 28th overall in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves (7:15pm, EST) Spencer Strider Over 17.5 Outs: (-160) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Since returning from injury, Spencer Strider has shown signs of his former self as the Atlanta Braves pitcher is currently averaging a FIP of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.143. Strider has also wasted no time in his efforts to generate a high rate of Whiffs as he is also averaging over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

In a favorable matchup against Baltimore’s underwhelming offense, Strider will have a great opportunity to go the full length of his start as he faces off against an Orioles lineup that ranks near the bottom of the board in Contact Rate and in Strikeout Rate. Should the total on his Outs prop cross through the key number of 18, then pass on this market.

Tyler O’Neill Under 0.5 Hit: (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It has been an abysmal year for Tyler O’Neill as the Orioles batter is averaging less than one Hit per game and a .188 Batting Average. With Strider generating Whiffs at a high rate, as well as being supported by a defense that ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency, expect O’Neill to continue to struggle with making contact and be held without a Hit.

Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies (8:10pm, EST) Colorado Rockies First Five Innings Team Total Under 2.5: (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Chicago White Sox have struggled as a whole, Adrian Houser has been one of their lone sources of production as he is averaging an ERA of 1.90 and a WHIP of 1.172. Even when receiving minimal support from his defense, Houser has still been able to neutralize opposing offenses as his FIP of 3.23 indicates.

In a matchup against Colorado on Friday night, expect Houser to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Rockies offense that ranks near the bottom of the board in most key offensive metrics. Colorado’s struggles with generating Hits will help Houser keep them out of scoring position, which increases his chances of holding them under their team total in the first five innings.

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