A Nine-Win Jaguars Team Could Win the Division in 2025

The AFC South is facing a tumultuous season, with the Jacksonville Jaguars likely to dominate the division due to the struggles of their rivals. The Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans are all grappling with significant issues, including quarterback instability and roster concerns. Sports bettors might favor the Jaguars for a division win, as their path appears relatively easier compared to the other teams, who are projected to struggle.

The AFC South has had its share of struggles over the last three seasons, with the division winner only finishing at 10-7. In the crowded penthouse of the American Football Conference, that's barely good enough to get in through the staff entrance. With the way the pendulum is swinging, the Houston Texans may not be as apt to reach the ten-win threshold that they had in 2023 and 2024.

In a recent episode of his Jacksonville Jaguars Insider Podcast, On SI Beat Writer John Shipley touched on the Jaguars possible fortunes in their quest for divisional supremacy. "The AFC South, simply put, over the last several seasons, and really, the last decade or so has just been one of the weaker divisions in the NFL. A lot of times, the Jaguars did in '22, the Texans did it in 2023, 9-8 can win the division, and I believe that can be the case again this year."

The first team that was covered was the team that knocked the Jags out of the playoffs in 2023 in Week 17. But it's a franchise whose struggles netted them the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 Draft, where they selected QB Cam Ward of Miami. "I mean, just look at things," Shipley expressed. "The Tennessee Titans are coming off being the worst team in football. There are still very legitimate and genuine concerns on if Brian Callahan is actually any good or not."

"I think Cam Ward's going to be a good quarterback, but still, you're a rookie quarterback being placed on the worst team in football. We saw how that worked with Bryce Young. We saw how that worked with Caleb Williams. We saw how that worked with Trevor Lawrence. The list really goes on and on, you know, from there in terms of number one pick quarterback. So I think Cam Ward is going to be a good player. I think he's gonna make a lot of plays as a rookie. But do I necessarily think Tennessee is going to win many games? No, I do not."

As for the neighbors farthest up North, the Colts seem to be regressing as well with a tenuous QB situation featuring two top-ten draft flops at the most important position in the game. "Then you look at the Indianapolis Colts, who already have, in my opinion, one of the league's worst quarterback situations in Anthony Richardson [and] Daniel Jones. It doesn't seem like there's a right answer there. You know, the absolute best case scenario for them would be for Richardson to prove he's the guy. But then he gets another injury during the offseason program, and while I'm sure, you know, he'll be back in time for training camp. He's not a guy who can miss time, who can miss reps. And if the Colts just roll with Daniel Jones, then it just feels like another kind of 'blecchh' and wasted season from Indianapolis."

When looking at the team that won the crown the past two seasons, there's a team in the Houston Texans that simply seems on the downturn. "And then finally, the Houston Texans. Obviously. C.J. Stroud's a great quarterback. Demeco Ryans is a great head coach, but the offensive line [has] some serious, serious questions about it. They just had a really weird offseason. They added a lot of old guys. A lot of guys aren't really starter-level players, even though they added them to start a level role. So I think Houston has some serious flaws along their roster this year. We'll see if Stroud and Ryans, [just] how well they mask them. But I think they're far from a perfect team, even if they are the presumed division winner."

"So I think, lastly, just knowing that the AFC South has two teams who will likely finish under .500 and then a third team in the Texans who have a lot of issues, just doesn't seem like a very intimidating division to me." The Jaguars have a schedule that makes all of this entirely possible. If they can go 4-2 in the South, win two out of five against the NFC West plus Carolina and take three out of the six from the AFC West plus Cincinnati and the New York Jets, they are a 9-8 team. But this Liam Coen-led team has the plan to maybe win one more and firmly get in the postseason.

Si