Prediction NFL 2025 Season – Underdog Betting Tips for Week One

The wait is almost over. The NFL roars back to life in a few weeks, and with it comes all the emotion, spectacle, and intrigue that fans have sorely missed throughout the league's annual seven-month hiatus. The 2025 season kicks off on September 5th, as the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys under the lights at the Linc, and it's the Birds that online betting sites make the team to beat this season. 

The latest Lombardi futures from the popular Bovada betting site currently have the reigning champs listed as a +700 joint favorite to successfully go back-to-back, level with the Buffalo Bills. But what of week one? Well, there are plenty of betting underdogs that we can see springing the shock on opening weekend. 

Early-season games can be unpredictable, with underdogs often seizing the opportunity to hit the ground running and emerge with huge momentum, gaining victories. One only needs to look at the Patriots' upset of the Cincinnati Bengals last season - in Cincy, no less - for proof of that. But which teams are we eyeing up for an outside bet on week one? Let's take a look. 

Chargers +2.5 (vs. Chiefs)

Raise your hand if you’ve heard this before—the Kansas City Chiefs are the AFC West's juggernaut and a perennial Super Bowl contender. But this script may get off to a wobbly start in Week One. The Los Angeles Chargers are in their second season under head coach Jim Harbaugh, and that disciplined edge that the head honcho has spent a year instilling could make them KC’s toughest divisional foe in years.  

Harbaugh has already reshaped the Chargers' identity, focusing on gritty fundamentals. Justin Herbert was a revelation last term, amassing a career-high QBR of 101.7 operating within a simplified offense tailored to his strengths. His quick reads and precise decision-making have unlocked the full potential of Los Angeles’s offensive weapons, while the revamped run game following the addition of Najee Harris from Pittsburgh provides a bruising counterpunch.  

For the Chiefs, concerns linger despite their pedigree. They’re looking to shake off a lopsided Super Bowl LIX loss—an uncharacteristic dismantling by the Eagles that exposed cracks in Andy Reid’s typically unstoppable system. Patrick Mahomes remains a generational quarterback, but he’s coming off his least productive season statistically and is adjusting to an overhauled receiving corps. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense is in flux, with questions at both edge rush and secondary positions.  

The Chargers’ defense, on the other hand, is considered the best in the league after allowing just 301 points last season, the lowest of anybody. Their pass rush, led by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, should wreak havoc on a Chiefs offensive line still coalescing after February's Big Game demolition. If they make the pocket uncomfortable for Mahomes, this game could turn into a gritty, low-scoring affair in which the Chargers thrive. 

Covering a +2.5 spread, or even pulling the outright upset, isn’t just plausible—it feels like a statement win waiting to happen.  

Raiders +3.0 (@ Patriots)

Pete Carroll’s Las Vegas Raiders are built to disrupt. After a tumultuous 2024 season, the new head coach has instilled a newfound confidence in this group, and the pieces are in place for an early-season shocker against the New England Patriots.  

Maxx Crosby leads a ferocious defense that embodies the boss's hard-nosed mentality, a mentality that once helped create the fabled Legion of Boom. The edge rusher's ability to dominate in the trenches creates havoc for opposing quarterbacks, and with a deeper supporting cast, Las Vegas’ defense feels capable of suffocating unsteady offenses. 

Enter the Patriots. New England’s offense has none of the explosive firepower of years past, relying instead on rookie quarterback Drake Maye to engineer conservative drives. While he has immense potential, expecting him to thrive in only his 13th NFL start is a risky wager for backers of the Foxborough outfit.  

The Raiders’ offense also has an arsenal of tools to exploit the Patriots. Veteran Geno Smith, now under center, exudes poise in high-pressure situations, while rookie running back Ashton Jeanty adds a layer of dynamism to ground attacks. Anchoring the unit is tight end Brock Bowers, a matchup nightmare for defenders and a reliable target in key moments, as he displayed in his rookie year.  

The Patriots’ best hope will be to slow this game to a crawl, leaning on their defense to keep them in contention. But if Las Vegas can create a few early turnovers or establish field position battles, they have the ammunition to turn this into a scrappy, low-scoring upset. Taking them with a +3.0 line feels like one of the best underdog values of opening week.  

Bears +1.0 (vs. Vikings)

When the Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field, it won’t just be a matchup of two NFC North rivals—it’s a clash of quarterbacks separated by just seven selections on the draft board. 

The Bears’ offense boasts star quarterback Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 Draft. After spending his rookie season learning and adapting, he enters 2025 with a strong supporting cast that could make Chicago a legitimate contender. His receiving corps features Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze, a trio capable of exploiting even the best-prepared secondaries. 

On the flip side, Minnesota will start the new season with a new quarterback for the second straight year. Last term, it was Sam Darnold who shone despite low expectations. This term, they put the future in the hands of quarterback JJ McCarthy, who will be making his NFL debut. Soldier Field, with its vocal fans and notoriously fickle conditions, is not the ideal platform for a first start. 

The dynamic is clear: Chicago, armed with superior offensive firepower and a somewhat more proven quarterback, has the tools to make an early season statement. Covering a +1.0 spread feels like the bare minimum outcome in what could easily be a comfortable victory.